Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Recovery on sight

Since several months I have been saying that economic recovery would start in the second quarter of 2013.
I was arguing that many companies and people have been holding their breath, delaying any decisions on investments and spending as long as possible, being scared that they could not see clear in the future.
But eventually you cannot hold your breath for too long.
As the financial crisis gets over and after the central banks have shown that they can resist speculation against sovereign debts, someone will start spending money for anything that has become necessary and cannot be further postponed.
As soon as someone starts spending, someone else will follow, companies will start investing again and a new cycle of economic growth will begin, maybe slowly initially.

Today this article by Giuseppe Turani, a renown and often reliable economic commentator, makes a similar forecast using exactly my same arguments.

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